Getting an Edge in Sports Betting: Contrarian Sports Investing

Many people enjoy sports, and sports fans often enjoy placing wagers on the outcomes of sporting events. Most casual sports bettors lose money over time, creating a bad name for the sports betting industry. But what if we could “even the playing field?”

If we transform sports betting into a more business-like and professional endeavor, there is a higher likelihood that we can make the case for sports betting as an investment.

The Sports Marketplace as an Asset Class

How can we make the jump from gambling to investing? Working with a team of analysts, economists, and Wall Street professionals – we often toss the phrase “sports investing” around. But what makes something an “asset class?”

An asset class is often described as an investment with a marketplace – that has an inherent return. The sports betting world clearly has a marketplace – but what about a source of returns?

For instance, investors earn interest on bonds in exchange for lending money. Stockholders earn long-term returns by owning a portion of a company. Some economists say that “sports investors” have a built-in inherent return in the form of “risk transfer.” That is, sports investors can earn returns by helping provide liquidity and transferring risk amongst other sports marketplace participants (such as the betting public and sportsbooks).

Sports Investing Indicators

We can take this investing analogy a step further by studying the sports betting “marketplace.” Just like more traditional assets such as stocks and bonds are based on price, dividend yield, and interest rates – the sports marketplace “price” is based on point spreads or money line odds. These lines and odds change over time, just like stock prices rise and fall.

To further our goal of making sports gambling a more business-like endeavor, and to study the sports marketplace further, we collect several additional indicators. In particular, we collect public “betting percentages” to study “money flows” and sports marketplace activity. In addition, just as the financial headlines shout, “Stocks rally on heavy volume,” we also track the volume of betting activity in the sports gambling market.

Sports Marketplace Participants

Earlier, we discussed “risk transfer” and the sports marketplace participants. In the sports betting world, the sportsbooks serve a similar purpose as the investing world’s brokers and market-makers. They also sometimes act in manner similar to institutional investors.

In the investing world, the general public is known as the “small investor.” Similarly, the general public often makes small bets in the sports marketplace. The small bettor often bets with their heart, roots for their favorite teams, and has certain tendencies that can be exploited by other market participants.

“Sports investors” are participants who take on a similar role as a market-maker or institutional investor. Sports investors use a business-like approach to profit from sports betting. In effect, they take on a risk transfer role and are able to capture the inherent returns of the sports betting industry.

Contrarian Methods

How can we capture the inherent returns of the sports market? One method is to use a contrarian approach and bet against the public to capture value. This is one reason why we collect and study “betting percentages” from several major online sports books. Studying this data allows us to feel the pulse of the market action – and carve out the performance of the “general public.”

This, combined with point spread movement, and the “volume” of betting activity can give us an idea of what various participants are doing. Our research shows that the public, or “small bettors” – typically underperform in the sports betting industry. This, in turn, allows us to systematically capture value by using sports investing methods. Our goal is to apply a systematic and academic approach to the sports betting industry.

The VLT – It May Look Like a Slot, But It's Not

So what's the difference between a traditional class III slot machine , video poker machine and a class II V ideo L ottery T erminal ? Read on:

Traditional Class III Slot Machines

All results on these gambling games are controlled by a small computer chip called a random number generator (RNG) inside each machine. This device allows the unit to continuously roam through random number combinations at the rate of thousands per second. These combinations are mapped to a specific outcome. It will not stop to select a display until the spin button is pressed or the handle is pulled. Each spin is independent of the next one. They have no effect on one another.

The RNG is installed at the factory to the payback specifications requested by the casino. A chip in each individual machine allows for jurisdictions to order different payback percentages in the same family of machines. (The payback percentage is the total amount of money returned to players over time.) They usually vary between 85% and 98%. Penny machines usually return the lower% amounts while the dollar and up machines return the highest. Contrary to what most players think, a casino CANNOT alter the payback percentages on a machine. This can only be done by factory personnel.

Class II Video Lottery Terminals

Have you ever thought about scratching off about 600 instant lottery tickets in about an hour? Play a VLT at one of the New York State racetracks and you'll be doing just that. In contrast to the aforementioned, a VLT plays a virtual lottery game that is linked to a central computer operated by the NYS Lottery in Schenectady, NY. They determine the outcome of each wager using an RNG, but with a pre-determined number of winners. The VLT operators can program the number of payouts in advance. Once you start play, the machine receives a virtual scratch off ticket. When the video reels stop spinning he results will be consistent with whatever is on the ticket. The payback percentages are controlled by the scratch off games. In NY the law requires a minimum 92% return.

Other VLT games that operate in Native American jurisdictions are virtual bingo games that are linked together, forcing players to compete against each other for the prize payout (s).

Video Poker VLT's

There's a big difference between the class III and class II games when it comes to video poker. A traditional class III machine deals 5 cards from a virtual 52 card deck. After you discard, your final hand is determined randomly from the remaining 47 cards. Your knowledge and skill are a big factor when trying to win.

In a class II VLT, your final hand will be whatever the virtual scratch off ticket dictates. Even if you make a mistake and discard winning cards, a virtual "genie" will appear on your screen and change your hand to the pre-determined winning result. No skill is needed to win. It's not a 52 card deck. It's nothing more than a slot machine.

I'm not trying to discourage anyone from playing VLT's. You can win as well as lose. A 92% payback is a 92% payback. Whatever games you decide to play, you'll always need a visit from Lady Luck!

Horse Racing Master Class – How to Profit From a Lucky 15 Bet

How The Lucky 15 Bet Works

A Lucky 15 consists of 15 bets involving 4 selections in different events. It is the same as a Yankee bet except you have a single win on each horse. The bet is made up of 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles, and 1 fourfold.

If one selection wins, bookmakers will often give a consolation to the returns like double the odds. Some of the smaller independent bookmakers will sometimes offer treble the odds. If all four selections win, then often bookmakers will give a bonus of 10% or more to total returns.

For each-way lucky 15 bets the consolation is normally only paid on the win part of the bet. Because of these bonuses, Lucky 15 bets are often thought of good value multiple bets

How To Pick Your Selections For A Lucky 15 Bet

When picking your selections for a Lucky 15 bet you are mainly looking for winners to double and treble up. Most horses that win races are from the first three in the betting forecast prices and 80% of horses win at odds of less than 5/1. One or two larger priced horses are OK if you are betting each way. Try to pick from the days races with less than 12 runners with a top jockey on board. If you are not sure about picking your own selections use your favorite newspaper tipster or join a professional horse racing tipping service. Also look out for trainers hitting form

Until next time be lucky

Casino Secrets – The Ultimate Strategy to Win in Casino Gambling

Let me show you the casino secrets that professional gamblers do or possess when they are heading to the casinos.Many amateur gamblers will fail to see, even though the strategies are so easy and logical. This is where casinos take total advantage of this phenomenon and cause many gamblers to go home empty-handed.Casino Tips To Remember:-   1. How Much Money To Bring To The Casinos.For the common people who are eager to get a rush of the casinos from all over the world, it is definitely ridiculous to tell you guys that, “Hey, bring about 5% of your bankroll and don’t get burned especially if you are on a losing streak!”Let’s settle for 20% shall we? For example, if your payroll that you bring back home is $2000 and you have decided to bring along 20%, that comes to $400. I do not encourage you guys and girls to continuously take from your salary that your kids are waiting for you to feed them as bread and butter money!2. Leave All Your Valuables And Cash Behind.From point one, make sure you leave all your credit cards at home and cash cards and atm cards and any other cards which you can extract money from. Leave your valuables at home too! Just take your 20% and a fair sum for your logging and food.3.  Play Only With What You Have – Why That 20%.Now here comes the reasoning for the somewhat big 20% that I have requested. First, if you took with you, say, 5% of your payroll, that will come to a miserable $100, if your salary is $2000, which cannot do much and makes no sense for your long ride to the casinos. Of course, at this point, I am talking about the lowest point which you can take to the casinos! If you have more cash, you can reduce that 20% to 10%.Secondly, if you lose $100, usually, you will go home with a revengeful heart. That is where casinos are dying to extract from each and every gambler! They are counting on your return with a vengeful heart! When you do this, the first thing in your brain is surely to win back that $100. And after that? Of course to make a killing!Stop! That is exactly where one and every gambler loses their sense of logic and let their emotions take control. Lose that revengeful heart! Count your blessings that you only lost $100 and not $1000!Hence, that 20% will suffice and minimize any illogical reasoning your revengeful heart might have. do me a favour – Put all your dreams behind, put all your emotions behind and put all your love and hate behind at home. Now you are ready to head to the casino with a logical mind!4. Social Etiquette.When down at the casinos, remember to dress smart. Why? If you look dull, chances are you are going to be dull too. On the other hand, do not over dressed, or look as if you are the richest guy. Your aim is to stay low, look smart but without the casino management noticing you. Smile to the dealer and the patrons around you. It makes the table you are playing more pleasant and in Chinese terms, better “feng shui” in the atmosphere. If you are losing, don not show a moody face; it will not get you more money and only stresses you up.5.Do not be overwhelmed by the casino environment!Do not be dazed by the crazy lights and atmosphere in certain parts of the casino and dash there to play cause the casino advertisements taunt you so! Walk around and gauge the surrounding instead. Do not let your heart takes you to that jackpot or roulette table cause that sweet young thing or voluptuous chick is looking at you! Keep logical! You are here to win Big Money! The girls can always come later after that!6. Learn Your Game.If you are playing blackjack, go and learn some basic card playing strategies before embarking on the actual table game. If you go in with a complete lack of game play, the patrons that are on that table will most likely frown and might even ask you to leave. Though they do not have the right to do that, but nevertheless, a bad atmosphere is already created. Do not do that. Learn your game first. Get a book. or search the internet. There are tons and tons of basic casino game rules and strategies that you can enlist the help of. And they are all free!7. Feel the good table for playing.Do not hit the first table when you enter the casino! Feel around and look around. When you locate the table with your minimum bet, also try to get one without the smokes and crazy old men or loud women! They tend to spoil the atmosphere!A good table that you can play and win is most likely the table with the most noise! And most likely, the seats are all taken! Nowadays, you can “hitch” a ride on the lucky player with your chips and watch how your chips multiply exponentially! The good table tend to have players with chips stacking up nicely and the players are all in a good jolly mood and chatting with one another. Usually when the players are winning, the probability is that the dealer is having a bad run. Things will turn around later on, so grab that chance as soon as possible! A good table ensures you are set for the day and your gambling game plan is already half won!8. Do not be overwhelmed when you are winning!If you have a good table to play, chances are, you will get carried away and start betting bigger bets! Don’t! Don’t! Don’t! Keep your bets to the same sum that you had been playing and be aware of the total money accumulated from your winnings and where your chips are! If you can, have a jacket with an inside pocket and zip or button to hold your good chips. This also prevents the crowd from noticing your abundance of wealth accumulation! After your good winning streak, go and change your chips to cash and if possible, send your money straight back home! There are now very convenient ways to do that!The aim of all this is to prevent your heart from running wild and you might want to start crashing on almost any table or jackpot cause you start to believe you are on to having a good time! Don’t! That is exactly what the casino is seducing you with! The dazzling lights and pretty girls and loud jackpot noises and people cheering are the keys to making you lose that logical control in your abundance of wealth that you have accumulated! If you cannot control, then you should not even come to the casino in the first place!9. Know when to walk away.If on the other hand, you start losing, you need to stay calm. If you chance to have consecutive 3 losses, you might want to walk away from that table. You might want to set a sum, say to lose $300 or if you are winning, to win a targeted $3000. Do not be greedy either way. If you win and then all of a sudden, the losing streaks come, you might want to watch that 3 consecutive losses or that first $300 to lose. In that way, you are aware of your wins and losses and are ready to walk away and walk out without the pain and lost of logical.Try to watch how your chips are, keep them in piles where you know how to count them at a glance or through finger feeling. It is best to keep the chips into your pocket when you are winning so that you segregate the wins against what you can lose. Of course, this means you need to be very alert and learn some art of smooth motion without alerting greedy losers who are out to rob the winners! Be aware that some of these are pretty and voluptuous women!So are you ready to hit out to the casinos? Good luck and may the best man wins! Have fun!